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Market Insight Series - February 2025

What does the current Victoria real estate market look like?




As part of our monthly Market Insight Series, I am excited to continue to bring you regular insights into the Victoria and Vancouver Island market trends, so you can make better buying and selling decisions. Below I will jump into the most important market numbers to look into, I will provide glossary term definitions, and will conclude with resources if you want to further research current trends and stats. If you want to see what the Market Insight for the previous month was, click here.




Alright, let’s break this down.


January 2025 Housing Market: Strong Start with Balanced Inventory and Stable Pricing

January 2025 saw 422 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region—up 23.8% compared to January 2024, when only 341 properties changed hands. That's a solid bump and a slight increase of 0.2% from the previous month. Now, let's talk numbers.


Condominiums: Sales shot up 30.4% from last January. We saw 146 units sold in January 2025—more people are jumping into the condo market. The price for condos in the Victoria Core area did dip slightly, down by 0.7% from $551,900 in January 2024 to $548,100 this year, but that’s negligible, and it increased slightly from December's price of $547,800.


Townhomes also saw a healthy jump, with sales up by 44.4%. In total, 52 townhomes were sold in January 2025. That’s a massive leap, reflective of growing interest in this type of home.


Single-family homes are up 19.8%, with 194 units sold. The average price for a single-family home in the Victoria Core has increased by 2.8%, from $1,252,200 last January to $1,287,200 in 2025, although it dropped slightly from December's peak of $1,306,400.


Now, let's talk about inventory. At the end of January 2025, there were 2,395 active listings—up 4.6% from the previous month and an 11.9% increase from last year. That’s encouraging because more listings mean more options for buyers, keeping things in balance. This is the first time in 10 years that over 1,000 new listings were added in January alone.


Overall, the local market is currently stable. Inventory levels look healthier than in recent years, and pricing is steady. Interest rates are moving positively, so buyers may continue to feel more confident as long as we don't hit any significant economic turbulence. However, some broader geo-economic factors may breed uncertainty in the market.


Macro Economic Outlook & US Tariff Threats

Despite the most recent local numbers, it’s not all smooth sailing. There’s some global uncertainty in the air—and international trade issues could play a role in the coming months. In particular, the US under President Trump has been saber-rattling with the threat of a sharp 25% Tariff against Canada. Although Canada is one of the first targets these threats have been directed at, we aren't the only ones. Colombia received a threat of 25% tariffs recently as well, which were quickly withdrawn when Colombia agreed to accept an aggressive US deportation plan. Additionally, Mexico was recently threatened with 25% Tariffs and China with 10% Tariffs. Although Tariffs have not yet been paused on China, the US has agreed to pause tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days in exchange for a ramp-up in border security efforts to fight illegal immigration and drug trafficking.


Canadian Economic Outlook

Despite the recent pause on tariffs and an opportunity to avoid a significant tariff war, Canada and Canadian real estate are not out of the woods yet. If the US were to move forward with putting a 25% Tariff on Canadian goods and 10% on Canadian energy exports, that would hurt our economy. Some economists have forecasted that a Tariff impact of this size could be enough to lower Canada's GDP by between 2.2% - 3%. With the economy growing at 1.8% GDP, a 2-3% hit on GDP growth is enough to put our economy into a recession.


The hope is that this won't happen and that the federal government will be able to work out a deal that allows us to continue business as usual. This seems to be a reasonable expectation, considering that a trade war would hurt both Canada and the US. In contrast, trade threats followed by a quick border enforcement concession would mean a quick win for Trump and the US with no cost to US citizens at home. In other words, a trade war would bring nothing but pain for both countries, whereas a negotiated concession would make Trump look good and benefit America without creating additional unnecessary costs to US citizens and Trump's voter base. While not all political decisions are rational, it's clear which of these options makes the most sense. However, nothing is guaranteed, and Trump's unpredictability keeps this threat alive.


Home Buyer Considerations

For now, there are two primary considerations for potential buyers in this market:


First, suppose you are a well-established buyer with a stable income, a sizeable downpayment, and maybe even a home to sell to leverage existing equity. In that case, you are in a good position during this market uncertainty. Suppose you think this whole trade threat issue is likely to blow over. In that case, the current market uncertainty opens up an opportunity to buy a home at a good discount while others are still sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what happens. The current uncertainty also gives you more time as you look around. Although the average home price in BC is projected to rise 4.5% this year, any potential price surge will likely be delayed until later due to the current trade uncertainty. Remember, though, that it's not guaranteed that current trade tensions will blow over. It's still possible that a trade war could ensue, resulting in the potential for home price stagnation and possibly even decline.


Second, you may be a new home buyer, someone in a less established career, or reliant on a less certain income source (i.e., self-employed). If that's your situation, then the emergence of this uncertainty could mean it's better to wait a few months and see how this all rolls out. Again, if this whole thing blows over in the next couple of months, you can more safely and confidently jump into the market when there's more certainty and less personal risk. If a trade war does emerge, you may be glad you waited since this could spare you the stress of committing to a mortgage when your job or primary source of income is suddenly much less certain. However, if your primary motivation is to wait and see only to try and get a better deal, remember that this trade tension may resolve itself. If that happens, you may lose a chance to get ahead of increasing demand, and now you may be competing against rising demand and prices.


Conclusion

In either case, the current situation doesn't lend itself to a sudden market rebound. We're likely looking at one of two scenarios: either easing trade tensions and a steady, gradual rise in real estate demand or a tariff war and recession. While it's anyone's guess on what will happen next, if I had to put a number to it, I would expect that there's a 75% chance that trade tensions ease and we see steadily growing real estate demand and prices this year. Alternatively, I would expect a 25% chance that trade tensions continue to escalate and Canada ends up in a recession that negatively impacts the Canadian real estate market.


So, if you're buying or selling, you’re dealing with a market with risks, threats, benefits, and opportunities. Decisions regarding your next move will ultimately be highly dependent on your own unique circumstances. In uncertain times like this, it's good to have a trusted advisor and knowledgeable REALTOR® by your side to help you make smart decisions.

Opportunities for ordinary people looking to get into their first home, or move up into an affordable nicer home are still out there, it just takes a bit of diligence, and ideally the support of a committed agent.


Conclusion


The goal is to give you insight into what the overall market view looks like in Victoria and Vancouver Island. I have included more Resources below so that you can dive in and read more at your leisure. I will also make sure to include a new Glossary Term each month, and define it to add to your knowledge of common industry terms.

Feel free to contact me if you want to learn more or if you have any questions about the broader market trends.


 

Glossary Term


Walk Score:

A numerical rating that indicates how walkable a neighborhood is, considering its proximity to amenities such as shops, restaurants, parks, and public transportation.


Read More:


Resources


1. VREB Insight:


2. Mortgage Calculator:


3. Mortgage Rate By Bank:


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