What does the current Victoria real estate market look like?
As part of our monthly Market Insight Series, I am excited to continue to bring you regular insights into Victoria and Vancouver Island market trends, so you can make better buying and selling decisions. Below I will jump into the most important market numbers to look into, I will provide glossary term definitions, and will conclude with resources if you want to further research current trends and stats. If you want to see what the Market Insight for the previous month was click here.
Alright, let’s break this down with a keen eye on the numbers. The Victoria real estate market is showing some strong signs, but keeping it in perspective is important.
In October, we saw 654 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region. That’s a whopping 60.7% increase compared to just 407 properties sold in October 2023, and it’s also up 14.5% from September 2024. When you look at specific categories, the numbers get even more compelling: condominium sales rose by 32.6%, with 187 units sold, while single-family homes saw a remarkable 76.2% jump, totaling 340 sales.
Now, context matters here. According to Dirk VanderWal, the Chair-Elect of the Victoria Real Estate Board, we must remember that October 2023 had the lowest sales since 2008. This means while the sales increase looks dramatic, it’s partly due to an extremely low baseline. Last month’s sales were almost right on the ten-year average for October, suggesting we’re moving back toward a more normalized market. It is not a meteoric rise but rather a return to normalcy from the unusually quiet real estate market in the last year or so.
The active listings tell an interesting story as well. At the end of October 2024, there were 3,161 properties available, down 6% from September but up 14.7% from 2,756 listings a year earlier. This stability in available homes contributes to a balanced environment, which benefits buyers and sellers. VanderWal points out that the recent announcements from the Bank of Canada regarding interest rates have likely influenced buyer and seller behavior, and we may continue to see this trend as we head into November, a month that usually signals the start of the winter slowdown.
Regarding pricing, the Multiple Listing Service Home Price Index (HPI) for single-family homes in the Victoria Core slightly declined. In October 2023, the benchmark value was $1,310,100, which has decreased by 0.8% to $1,300,200 this year. For condominiums, the benchmark value fell 5.4% from $578,800 in October 2023 to $547,800 in October 2024.
So, while we’re seeing increased sales and a more active market, consulting with your local realtor is essential to navigate these dynamics effectively. The market remains balanced, with fewer multiple offers, allowing buyers more time to decide. However, pockets of competition remain, especially for appealing homes listed at competitive prices. As we gear up for the winter months, the landscape will continue to evolve, and it’s a great time to stay informed and strategic.
While the current real estate market remains balanced, signs suggest we may be shifting toward a seller's market. The absorption rate is hovering around 25%, indicating rising demand compared to supply, as a balanced market typically sits between 14-20%. Additionally, with just over four months of inventory available—below the six-month benchmark for balance—buyers may soon face increased competition, leading to higher prices. Although the market is still favorable for buyers due to more inventory and negotiation opportunities, potential increases in demand and prices in 2025 and 2026 make it wise for buyers to consider acting sooner rather than later.
For sellers, there’s no urgent need to rush to market, especially with forecasts suggesting price increases. If you plan to list in the spring, getting your home on the market as early as January is advisable to avoid being overshadowed by higher inventory later in the season. Timing is crucial; if sellers need to sell to buy, they should aim to minimize the gap between transactions. No one wants to sell their home and wait months for the right place. Especially if home prices continue to rise. Even a slight price increase of 2% can significantly impact overall costs. On a $1M home, a 2% increase would mean you end up paying another $20,000 for the same home that you could have gotten earlier for cheaper. So exploring options like subject-to-sale offers can help secure a new home before selling the current one, effectively bridging the transition.
Below is a table that outlines the current housing benchmark pricing along with a sample calculation that can give you an idea of what it might cost you to own a home.
Opportunities for ordinary people looking to get into their first home, or move up into an affordable nicer home are still out there, it just takes a bit of diligence, and ideally the support of a committed agent.
Conclusion
The goal is to give you insight into what the overall market view looks like in Victoria and Vancouver Island. I have included more Resources below so that you can dive in and read more at your leisure. I will also make sure to include a new Glossary Term each month, and define it to add to your knowledge of common industry terms.
Feel free to contact me if you want to learn more or if you have any questions about the broader market trends.
Glossary Term
Buyer's Agent:
The buyer's agent represents the buyer, assisting them with property searches, negotiations, and closing procedures. Although some agents may specialize solely in buying or selling only, most agents are willing and able to help clients list/sell their current home and purchase a new one. As a result, a buyer's agent is not typically a fixed role/title but usually a description of an agent's role in a particular transaction.
Read More:
Resources
1. VREB Insight:
2. Mortgage Calculator:
3. Mortgage Rate By Bank:
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